Global economic risks 2010

Global economic risks as at September 2010

When taking strategic decisions, it is important to understand the current and future environments in which the decision will be enacted , that is we must undertake some scenario planning. The global economic context is an important input to this.

On a monthly basis, the EIU update their  global risks and rate the likelihood and impact of the top ten. The document below portrays those risk graphically and adds two further dimensions:

  • likely speed of occurrence (ie how long will we have to react) and
  • intensity of the risk or opportunity based on a judgemental combination of the other three factors .

Global economic risks and opportunities as at September 2010

Global economic forecast

Global Economic Forecast (EIU)
Attached is the latest numerical EIU global forecast of the world economy and  its major components. In a nutshell, things have picked up in the Western economies this year but will drop again next year and then there will be a gradual rise. The developing economies, although volatile, show higher growth rates.
The second document then gives a few more details behind the numbers.
Genesis advice to individual organisations seeking to survive and grow is to dig deeper into the statistics (in-house and published) to discover where are the real opportunities. As you increase the level of granularity, it will be apparent that there is significant deviation around the averages. The identification of winning and losing sectors, sub-sectors and companies will highlight where are the areas of opportunities for growth.

EIU numerical global forecast as at 18 Aug 2010
EIU global forecast summary Aug 2010